March 2003

O How I Hate...

Ohio State.

[Cue Ranier Wolfcastle]"McBain to base. I am under attack by Commie Nazis."

Buckethead, I disagree with your statement about socialism evolving into fascism, but I think I will leave that debate aside for now. Any hint of Socialism in the Nazi party platform went out the window in May 1933 when the trade unions were crushed by Goebbels. That being said, it is striking that farmers and workers both in Nazi Germany and Stalinist Russia existed under feudal conditions.

As for affirmative action, the problems that lead to inequality among college applicants have far more to do with the condition of public schools than with some crazy race/ethnicity axis. And don't get me started on the state of public education. Everyone blames the teachers. It's not the teachers. Everyone blames the teachers unions. It's not (totally) them. It's the incoherent (unfunded) mandates handed down by state and federal governments that rob teachers of any latitude whatsoever. It's the standards and standardized tests that change from year to year. It's the insane culture of litigation that prohibits teachers from even standing up to disruptive students, for fear of being sued, fired, and blacklisted. It's the insult of making $17,000 per year after earning a Masters degree and certification.

Education is a local issue. Ohio has different education issues than does New York or California. For that matter, New York City has different education issues than does Syracuse. This emphasis on standardized tests leaves students conditioned to accept information in a capsule format and robs them of the opportunity to learn neat stuff like how to write without using emoticons or how to play a musical instrument. Useless skills, to be sure, for America's future plumbers and hair technicians! Let's give up on them now and let those who can afford it get out of a sinking ship! HOLY SHIT THIS MAKES ME SO ANGRY!

....pant.....pant....pant

...Edison schools. Crap! Vouchers treat the symptom, not the problem! "No Child Left Behind" carries as much water as "Compassionate Conservatism," "Peace In Our Time," or "Read My Lips: No New Taxes."

Hey... while I'm all hepped up maybe I should devote a moment to the antiwar protests. Not the protesters. God bless them, except those mendacious Stalinist Fuckwits in ANSWER. The protests. Folks, the warmed-over, mentally bankrupt, tired, old 5-6-7-8 chants, hippie shit, sit-ins, human chains, and giant puppet heads have to go. Jesus!

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

Some more quick points

Mike: I wasn't bring up any particular issue in re: University of Michigan. I just hate them because I'm an Ohio State fan. But thanks for the insightful commentary. 

As far as the connection between communism and fascism, there are many similarities - state control of economy, police state policies, brutal oppression, etc. They were two sides of the same coin - one side plated with internationalism and class warfare, the other with nationalism and race warfare. That's probably why they hated each other so much, and why calling a political opponent a Nazi is still the greatest insult someone on the left can lay on an opponent. (If Stalin and crew weren't communists, why did they insist that they were? Socialism evolved into many things, one of them was fascism.) 

Definitely tell your students! Tell everyone, pass out flyers in the street... 

Johno: On convenience, I agree completely. That's why we wrote our constitution in negative statements - "Congress shall pass no law..." It isn't about government convenience, its about our freedom. 

As far as Saddam, ex-pet American dictator, goes - I think we are cleaning up our mess. The fact that we helped create it (as we did in Afghanistan) does lay a moral obligation on us. We did a lot of questionable things in the Cold War - many of which were probably justified in the light of the larger struggle against communism - that we will have to clean up. 

Thanks for the Pat Boone post.

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

Things that make me go, "Seda? E seda duhty wuhd!"

Mr. Buckethead, 

To piggyback on your quick points, if I may. It's pretty clear that Castro is bad news. See? There's one lefty for the count. 

As to the National Socialist German Worker's Party issue, I must point a couple of things out. I'm sure this has occurred to you as well, but I would like to state for the record that the Nazis were a long way from being socialists of any stripe. While the original incarnation of the party, under the Strasser brothers, mostly, was oriented toward left of center politics, the fact that the word National preceded the word socialist in the party titled negated the whole thing. Socialism at that time was an international economic philosophy, and I might add, not a political system. For that matter Josef Stalin, Mao Ze Dong, Pol Pot, and their ilk were a long way from being Communists. Be that as it may, President Bush is not a Nazi; that's absurd. I hope you'll notice that despite my war opposition and despite the fact that I disagree with his policies and practices, I have done my best to refrain from ineffective and discourteous ad homonym (sp?) criticism. Thus, I will say, President Bush mispronounces the word nuclear as nucular. I'm not convinced that he does it deliberately to appear folksy.
The security craze sucks, alright. Good grief. I can walk out of my building and get shot by a gang-banger or hit by a car. Hell, don't most accidents occur in the home? I could electrocute myself changing a light bulb. Safety is never a guarantee, people. Hear, hear, Buckethead! 

The University of Michigan Law School issue is thorny, but here's why I think their point system really is doing something wrong. The University has asserted that it is in the best interest of society to discriminate against white males. In fact, their point system, as I understand it and I could be wrong, also discriminates against Asians. Huh. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that discriminating against anyone, for any reason, is never in the best interests of society. The problem is that the academic realm is not a meritocracy, it is an aristocracy in which pedigree is more important than ability. Since there is no king of academia, academic aristocrats let others in the clubhouse through their own creation of new peerages. There are other more complicated issues surrounding the controversy, but that's the only one I've thought through enough to take a stand. Can I tell my students about this site? They might enjoy it.

Posted by Mike Mike on   |   § 0

Fine, fine, fine

Fine fine fine fine fine. First things first. 

On empire as a non-indeterminate duality:

Buckethead, semantics aside, I'm willing to grant you your orthodox definition of "Empire" if you will grant me that there exists no empire/not-empire duality between which poles there is no ground for indeterminacy. I think that may be the single most opaque sentence I have ever written. 

On good and evil as non-indeterminate duality: 

Your point is well taken that the Cold War skewed US perceptions of good/evil (again not a Manichean duality). Furthermore, it is wrong to argue that since we made the mess, we forfeit the right to clean it up later. What a stupid argument, that I hear all the damn time! However, some Chicken Littles feel the US is currently in danger of allowing the same thing to happen once again in the opposite extreme. Christ, even AA doesn't require you to actually fix every problem you ever caused. Especially if that means ignoring especially inconvenient ones. 

On convenience: 

I don't think for a second that anyone in the Administration sits in a windowless room, night after night, brooding and plotting in a black leather wing chair about their cunning plans to break the spine of the American will and leave them putty--putty! to be molded like, er, putty into a complacent and docile nation of ciphers. 

That being said, the road to hell is paved with you know what, and good intentions never excuse wretched results. If certain members of the Government wish to make it easier to obtain information about any citizen under any circumstances, for the sake of convenience, that deserves much questioning. If certain agencies of Government wish for the power to detain US citizens at will and try them in a military court, that deserves ridicule. If those same agencies wish to reserve the power to strip US citizens of their citizenship, then I man the walls and start shooting on sight. Fuck good intentions, and fuck convenience. I, and all Americans, deserve to live free from fear of our government. Liberty is constrained when a citizen fears his leaders at every turn. Fuck good intentions, and fuck convenience. 

On Pat Boone: 

I WAS going to let this slide. But you know what, I can't now, so you asked for it, you're effing well going to get it. 

Eminem is a whole lot like Pat Boone. Like Pat, he is a popular and wildly successful practitioner of a mature form of the popular arts. Like Pat, he has become popular by drawing on, reinterpreting, and arguably sanitizing, the fundamental tropes of his chosen genre. Like Pat Boone, he is a white boy singing what started as the modern folk music of black America, and he's become famous by being that music's emissary to white America and the pop world. And like Pat Boone, he's really fucking good at it. 

However. Eminem is much better than Pat Boone. Pat Boone is and always was boring. The music is competent but unremarkable, and his singing is too straightforward to really grab you. His talents were a great voice, charisma, and a stage presence, all of which went down easy back in the day. Eminem has the same exact things going for him, but he has more too, plus he's fun. No more "controversial," but fun. And better. 

Pat Boone never engaged in self-mythologizing like Eminem has, for instance. Do you realize that each of Eminem's first four albums have engaged a different aspect of his persona, and totally convincingly? Eminem, Slim Shady, Marshall Mathers, they are all different characters, and within the mini-dramas of his singles, Eminem plays them off one another masterfully, if you care about that kind of thing. What's most remarkable about that is, from day one, he had to have planned this out. To do that, and to pull it off, is pretty awesome. 

Eminem has wicked flow -- he wraps lines around the beat, rushes them out, bites off words, falls completely off the meter, and somehow makes it right back to where he needs to be. Lots of black rappers can't touch him -- Biggie Smalls, Old Dirty Bastard, Mase (where is he now???), Missy Elliott, Nelly, they all have/had rudimentary rhythmic skills. (Admittedly, Biggie, ODB, and Missy all make their limitations into major strengths). Eminem writes funny, vivid lyrics. His ability to create a character, okay, caricature, with only a few lines is unmatched in current hip-hop, and his hooks kick ass. But yes, you are right. Eminem is like Pat Boone. He doesn't innovate, he perfects. Innovation is left to Timbaland and Missi, Prince Paul, N.E.R.D., perpetual outsiders like Aceyalone, and all the thousand kids in the Queensboro Houses who don't even remember who Schooly D was. It's been almost fifty years (FIFTY YEARS!!!!) since Pat Boone cleaned up Ain't That A Shame and had a hit with it. Who do we remember? Fats Domino. Eminem is probably headed for the same shabby dustbin, to rest beside Snow, Young MC, and Technotronic, but he's so much goddamn fun right now, that I could give a shit. Q.E.D.

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

Things that make me go, "Fuck!"

The way the left ignores the abuses of murderers like Castro.

Our politicians making like they're Alexander the Great for busting bong manufacturers, closing down a rave, or picking on a defenseless computer geek for using ftp.

Civil Forfeiture and the RICO statutes.

Ex-Admiral John Poindexter's all seeing eye.

The Drug War

Norway

Idiots who think that America and Americans are too delicate, and must be protected by all consuming security laws. Look what happened to the shoe bomber. Or the guy on SW Airlines a few years back who was killed by his fellow passengers. I'll take a few extra risks, and keep my freedom, thank you very much.

Meddling politicians who are over-solicitous of my safety and well being, and act on it. (see above.)

Tom Daschle, who thinks I'm rich, and deserve to have two thirds of my income taken away to pay for his ridiculous sob sister policies.

People who call Bush a Nazi. National Socialist Worker's Party, jackass.

Reality programming

The University of Michigan

There's more, but that's enough for now.

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

Another quick response

Yes, Saddam used to fall into the category, "Yes, he's a bastard, but he's our bastard." The fact that he fell out of that category was due to 1) the end of the cold war, as I've discussed earlier; and 2) he went to far. The Cold War distorted our perceptions of international politics enormously. Ideology is a bad thing.

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

Two quick responses

Johno, on Reagan: 

Yes, Yes, and about as close as we're likely to get 

Mike, on Alien and Sedition: 

I don't think its very likely. The amusement factor of someone calling Bush a Nazi in Lafayette Park right north of the White House, yet remaining magically un-arrested, was about a 9.5. Civil Forfeiture is unalloyed, unconstitutional, unacceptable wrongness. Yet, there is a movement to reverse it. All is not lost. There are many bad things in this country. I could talk about them for hours. But overall, things are not just better here than elsewhere, they are good in an absolute sense. We have freedom and wealth and knowledge unimagined in history. And the basic structure of our institutions is sound, though always threatened; threatened more by expediency and good intentions than by malice. There's a lot of things I'd fix, but many more that I'd leave alone. 
 

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

Israel

Well, the government mostly, but not just the government. Arafat began his terrorist career killing American diplomats, but then focused on indoctrinating teenagers to blow themselves up in the hope of taking a few Israelis with them when they check out. The rest of the Palestinian Authority is similarly oriented. When the Israelis move into the west bank or Gaza, they try to minimize, not maximize civilian casualties. They attempt to kill those who plan and orchestrate the suicide bombings of Israeli citizens. Israeli armed forces are subject to the rule of law, and the civilian control of a democratic government.

I pose a little thought experiment: how long, in hours, would it take for the Palestinians to get their independence if they adopted a policy of non-violent resistance a la Gandhi? The fact that they resist the Israelis (the "Zionist Entity") does not justify their behavior. Terrorism is unacceptable, and that is a choice that the Palestinians have made. This is why over the last decade or so I have had ever less sympathy for their plight. The large majority of Palestinians who support the suicide bombings of innocent Israelis are not merely morally wrong, they are stupid because it makes it that much less likely that they will ever achieve their goals.

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

Informal Empires

Mike, would you say that the Chinese Empire in the fifteenth century or so had an informal empire that included SE Asia, Korea, Manchuria, and Japan? For me, I have a hard time translating influence into empire - empire to me means something like the Romans or the British. Generally, if someone wants our stuff, or watches our movies, or whatever, that's their choice. We aren't forcing it down their throats at gunpoint. Now, obviously in Iraq we are going to force Democracy down the Iraqi collective throat, but if McD's can't make money in Mesopotamia, they'll close up shop and move elsewhere.

As for the United States itself, while yes, we did take the land from the Indians, our polity is not structured even remotely like any historical empire. We do not function like an empire internally. Our overseas possessions are leased, or the people there voted to be part of our big crazy party.

Maybe we need to consult a therapeutic semantician.

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

Out of the loop

I haven't had a chance to listen to the news since this morning, though I see on the ever-useful Drudge Report that the ground war has started. Apparently, we are moving into the shock and awe phase of Gulf War II. So I have little to say about that, except that I hope it all moves swiftly, and that there are few casualties.

While I do like Brendan Fraser, and for the same reasons as Johnny, I don't think this disqualifies me from thinking that operation names have gone disctinctly cheesy over the last two decades. Back in the big one, we had cool names like ULTRA, Overlord, Barbarossa, Market Garden, and the like. Even into the Vietnam era, we still had names like Rolling Thunder. But starting around the invasion of Panama, we lost it. I understand that the military still uses a computer generated naming system for small operations - which results in names like Pave Blue (the research project that led to the F-117 Stealth Fighter), Elegant Lady, Tractor Rose, Forest Green, Senior Citizen, Island Sun and Black Light, White Cloud and Classic Wizard. But for the big ones, we come up with utter crap. Noble Eagle wasn't to bad, though even that leaves much room for improvement.

While I don't think that corporate sponsorship is the way to go, "Kotex sponsors operation Iraqi Freedom, because you can never be too sure." has a nice ring.

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

Operation: More Than Meets The Eye

WKYC news in Ohio reports that Optimus Prime, leader of the Autobots is among those helping to liberate Iraq.

n.b. Optimus Prime is evidently a resident of Mansfield, Ohio.

Well, of course he is.

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

I rather like

Operation Iraqi Freedom, brought to you by Snickers. Snickers satisfies you!

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

Caveat

But I'm also the guy that thinks Brendan Fraser is cruelly underrated.

Blast From The Past! Encino Man!! The Mummy!!! Gods and Monsters!!!!

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

Operation: This Space for Rent

Hey ho, Operation: Iraqi Freedom. Good grief. What's next? I've got a few additional suggestions myself. How about Operation: Kick yo’ ass, bitch! That would certainly get the attention of white suburban teenagers. What a demographic! Women are a huge demographic, they need to get them on board, too. How about, Operation: Protect the Freedoms of Women Abroad to Make Them Just like Americans? Soccer moms love Operation: Minivan. Or Operation: Never Discipline your Children, Instead let them run around, scream, and annoy people in public places? Metalheads are a neglected demographic, in my opinion. Operation: Speak English or Die? The original satiric nature of the title might be lost on today's Metalhead. 

But why do that, when you can keep the same Operation: Iraqi Freedom title and add corporate sponsorship? How about the Amazon.com Operation: Iraqi Freedom? The Bank One Operation: Iraqi Freedom. How about the New York Stock Exchange Operation: Iraqi Freedom? The Motorola Operation: Iraqi Freedom? It could be just like sports stadiums, and the government could raise additional revenue by selling the naming rights of the war! What a concept! It's free market capitalism and atavistic ass-kicking rolled into one! Like a football game! 

Hey, we have to teach the Iraqis to be good free market capitalists anyway. Let’s start right away! 
 

Posted by Mike Mike on   |   § 0

Operation: This Space For Rent

Virginia Postrel, via Tacitus, thinks, as I do, that the name "Operation Iraqi Freedom" is really, really, dumb. Where are the great, cryptic, epic, operation names of yesteryear? Operation Desert Storm! Operation Overlord! Operation Enduring Freedom! Operation PantyDesert Shield!

Please visit Tacitus and scroll down to the comments for a host of alternate suggestions, such as:

Operation Wellington
Operation Guillotine
Operation Return of the King
Operation Beverly Hills Cop IV
Operation Hide The Saladin
Operation Shifting Rationale

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

Testify!

Windy City Mike, DITTO on everything you said, from your thoughts on casual empire to questions about the potential for us to see an Alien & Sedition Acts Redux. Patriot II is in fact in the works, and if it passes, Bush will become exactly as poor a President as John Adams by that scorecard. The government has already taken the opportunities presented by the War on Terror to pass opportunitistic legislation, and if that legislation contains provisions to ensure that nobody arrested under certain provisions can ever appear in court to challenge it, thus preventing judicial review, then where does that leave the balance of power?

p.s. I have been meaning to write a longer essay on fear and government. Someday I will get to it. Threat, or promise? You decide.

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

Jackassery

Texas Senator John Carter is proposing that the government bust a few teenagers for file trading and send them to prison to make an example of them for the other, like, billion people who do this. 

I think this strategy of deterrence is a GREAT allocation of time and money. It's already worked like magic against pot smokers! I mean, nobody smokes pot anymore, do they? 
 

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

Dissent

What do you think the chances are that this news, about a new wave of violent government repression of dissent, will inspire marches and demonstrations from the activist Left in the USA? 

Since it's happening in Cuba, (aka, "happyland"), and not in the fertile plains of their imaginations, I think the chances are pretty fucking slim indeed. 
 

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

Empire and governmental accountability

Greetings, 

There is no new information about the war, and I have completed tomorrow's lecture, so I have returned. In reviewing previous posts on the matter of empire, I've had a few additional thoughts. 

Let's start with the war and Iraq. The United States is, if successful, going to dictate an awful lot about policy in a new post-Hussein Iraq. Assuming things roll out according to plan (I reiterate, that doesn't happen often), Hussein will be removed and a representative government installed. Depending on how much influence the United States exercises, it may or may not follow along imperialistic lines. If the U.S. dictates what kind of government Iraq will have, that's skirting the edge, and more than a little arrogant, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's an imperial exercise. Imperialistic at most. The imperialism that follows would probably be more cultural and economic in nature, and that is what informal empire is all about. By cultural, I mean western media, clothing, products, Blue jeans and Beatles tapes, not to mention Mickey D's, essentially. Of course, the Iraqis might not mind that none too much. Hussein himself is not so anti-western as some might believe. He wears suits, except in war time, when he wears western style military clothing. But in the suit, he'd blend right in to a Lebanese American wedding in Toledo. 

Which leads me to another thing, piggybacking on a previous Bucketman point. Hussein is the kind of leader who, in times past, was precisely the type the United States liked. He was secular, ruthless, and more western than the leaders of neighboring states. The Bucketman has reminded us (although I said the same thing during my lecture on Tuesday, prior to seeing the post) that there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests. Even so, I would very much like an explanation from the government as to exactly why Hussein went from ally to enemy in so short a time. I heard today that Rumsfeld himself was adamant about keeping Hussein in power even after the nerve gas attack incident or incidents. Maybe that's not true, but I'd like to hear more about it from a reliable source, and I mean published material or corroborated documentation. I am, after all, in a direct educational line of descent from Von Ranke, so let's see the documents. Beyond that, I want the government now, many of whose members were also affiliated in some way with the Reagan administration that backed Hussein, to explain itself. What changed your mind? Was it just the invasion of Kuwait? Did the U.S. cut him off? Why? Why, Mr. Big hat funny pants Uncle Sam, did you go to war against people carrying weapons with made in the USA stamped on them in 1990? Why are we really going to war with them now? Was it okay for him to nerve gas people before or do God knows what, but it's not okay now? What's really going on here? I think there's a lot we're not being told, and I want to know what it is. We should aspire to a more democratic government, and secrecy is anathema to democracy. So let's have it. 

While I had the war on TV, shots were fired here in the neighborhood. Irony, yeah? All wars foreign and domestic.

Posted by Mike Mike on   |   § 0

Clarification

Gentlemen, 

Points of clarification always seem a necessity to me after a post. Let's begin. 

1) Scare quotes. I will respect sensibilities and will refrain from the use of scare quotes. 

2) Frustration. The frustration to which I referred was with the utter uselessness of dissent, not the members of our cyber-panel. Nor was I claiming that I had been attacked, nor was I expecting one. I just didn't want to leave the impression that I intended to be less than civil. Neurotically so, perhaps. As to my frustration with the futility of dissent, like I said, I and anyone else can oppose, oppose, oppose, and decisions have already been made. Objections are irrelevant. It is the way of the world, but it bugs me. On a similar topic, the Bucketman's optimism is duly noted viz-a-viz representative republics. But in my short lifetime I have seen so many governmental abrogations of individual rights and liberties, such as the de facto dismissal of the Fourth Amendment, that my pessimism makes me wonder just how representative the American republic will be in the future, and whether or not it will even be a republic. 

I often used to say that America needs its lunatic fringe, as they are really the protector of individual rights, but they have been increasingly marginalized. The ACLU is often perceived as an aggregate of clowns and fools when they attempt to protect those rights. Given the current outbreak of war, my pessimism forces me to ask, will we be revisited by the Alien and Sedition Acts? Iraqi nationals have already been detained. On the other hand, Daschle really blasted the President, and unlike the Democratic-Republicans of the Federalist era, specifically Matthew Lyon, he has not been imprisoned. So we'll see, but I'm never optimistic. No, I'm not a Libertarian, because I am virulently opposed to laissez faire capitalism, but I am a great-great-step-grandchild of the Enlightenment. Postmodernists would call me a racist and an elitist because of that, and they can stick it up their ass. I think what I think and I don't care so much what side that puts me on. According to academic perceptions, for example, I'm a right-wing extremist. Funny how that happens. 

3) Israel. I'll ask for clarification within my clarification. Is your perspective, Mr. Buckethead, that the Palestinian state or the Palestinian people or both are what you describe? I will respond with the assertion that however you perceive the Israeli state, in contrast, I see them as a occupying force who routinely murder and abuse the subject people they conquered. Granted, that’s what happens to subject people, just ask an American Indian, but that doesn't make it right. Many Israelis, particularly those I've heard interviewed on NPR, state that they are the legitimate authority in Palestine because they fought for and conquered the country. One young lady, I distinctly recall saying in the course of an NPR interview, "This is our country. We fought for it." I found her statements curious considering she had recently arrived there from Brooklyn. But there are other, longer-standing residents who echoed her sentiments. That is a might makes right argument, and under that stipulation, the Palestinians are justified in doing the same thing in attempting to reconquer the country. 

4) Empire. Dictionary definitions are all fine and good, but there are other factors. The historiography of British Imperialism (a topic of my recently passed comprehensive exams) clearly demonstrates a debate on the nuances of formal versus informal empire. I could easily supply a decent bibliography on the subject, but that's probably a story for another time. The United States is on its face a formal empire in that the entirety of it was conquered and seized from the indigenous peoples. It is more loosely a formal empire in that the United States has overseas possessions, such as Puerto Rico and American Samoa. They don't seem to mind too much, and it's a very benign formal empire, but a formal empire nonetheless. The United States possesses an informal empire in terms of the economic control it exercises over many parts of the world. That is much less benign. 

Okay, I'm going to pay more attention to the war show on TV. Plus, I need to write a lecture for tomorrow. Take it easy, gents.

Posted by Mike Mike on   |   § 0

Reagan

Well, what I tried to say, however ineptly, was this: It seems to me that the presidency of George W. Bush is unfolding much as Reagan's did. He is pursuing some similar policies, prosecuting a war against forces who would destroy American values, going ahead with SDI, enacting conservative social policy, etc. At the same time, he is suffering some of the fallout that Reagan did; e.g. coming across to some as alternately callous and clueless, and inspiring rabid, ad hominem attacks. The parallels between them are striking to me. Those things that can't be helped-- that people hate Bush as they did Ronnie-- are there, as are the resemblances that Bush could cultivate if he wanted to-- the policy decisions, the date with history, Dick Cheney, the rest of his cabinet sans Condi, and the whole idea of "compassionate conservatism" (empty as that has proven to be). 

  • Do you think these parallels are as apparent as I think they are?
  • Do you think Bush sees himself as Reagan's spiritual heir?
  • If so, is he right?

As for my thoughts about Reagan, history so far has been very kind to him. I'm embarrassed to say that, since I spent the years 1981-1989 playing Dungeons and Dragons in various basements in Hooterville, Ohio, my firsthand recollections of Reagan's presidency are mainly the big moments, certain bits of invective, and Alex P. Keaton. Even worse, since I spent my history education studying the nineteenth century, I haven't filled in that hole in my knowledge.Can someone please recommend me a good biography of him as President that is neither hatchet job or hagiography? 

[update]This is starting to turn into a thing, and I didn't mean it to. I'm just trying to find out if you other guys share my feeling that Bush reminds me of Reagan a little.

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

The DCX Tragedy

In the mid nineties, there was a brief shining hope for space enthusiasts. The Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO), descendent of Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative, had a spaceship. Known as the DC-X, for Delta Clipper – Experimental, this spaceship could not reach orbit. DCX was a one third scale prototype of a single stage to orbit (SSTO) vehicle. Unlike traditional expendable rockets or even the space shuttle, the full size DCX would take off vertically, travel to orbit, and return in one piece. 

This concept for an SSTO vehicle promised to reduce the per pound cost to orbit by several orders of magnitude, because the program did not entail throwing away large parts of the launch vehicle every time it was used. Further, the vehicle was designed using many of the lessons used in the design of large passenger jets, so that it would require much smaller ground crews and less turn around time than the space shuttle. 

The McDonnell-Douglas engineers who worked on the project had several firm rules to guide them. Most important was this: no new technology. The DCX project did not require a single item of new technology. No research was needed. Every component of the DCX was off the shelf technology. Only a few components even needed to be custom designed, such as the fuel tanks and the outer skin of the craft. The DCX team took the flight control system directly out of an MD80 passenger jet. (One engineer quipped that the DCX thought it was a airliner with a very unusual flight path.) 

For $600 million, the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO), successor to Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars) built a working, flying prototype space ship. By comparison to typical NASA expenditures, even in NASA Director Goldin's "Faster, Better, Cheaper" era, this was chump change. The BMDO flew the DCX over twenty times, each time pushing the boundaries, each time learning more of what they would need to know when they built the first full size prototype. (Some of these flights were even broadcast on CNN.) 

However, this happy progress was not to last. With typical government fickleness, the DCX program was transferred to a jealous NASA. NASA crashed the DCX the first time they flew it, and declared that the program was a failure. When the time came for NASA to name a contractor to build an SSTO craft, the contract was awarded to Lockheed's X-33 program. The X-33's success was predicated on the development of novel aerospike engines. At the time that Lockheed was awarded the contract, no one in the world had ever constructed a working aerospike engine. At the time that the X-33 project was cancelled, five years and billions of dollars later, no full-scale working aerospike engine had ever been built. 

Why would NASA, which at least theoretically desired an inexpensive to operate, earth to orbit vehicle, pick the X-33 project over the DCX? Especially considering that the DCX program had actually built a working prototype, and did not require the invention of several new technologies to even have a chance of succeeding? We may never know the answer to that question, but the experience of the last decade should suggest something to those who are planning NASA's next moves. 

Small programs with clear design goals have a much better chance of success than typical NASA programs. Private industry, given a clear mission and a free hand on how to go about achieving it, can achieve wonders. NASA should issue a clear set of specifications, in much the same way that the military does for new combat aircraft. Industry must build a flying prototype (though perhaps with some seed funding from the government.) One of the prototypes will be chosen, and the winner will get a contract to build production versions of the spacecraft. NASA should not have the opportunity to micromanage development, nor to continually change the specifications. And NASA should be forced to pick one of the working prototypes. 

Here is a situation where the government could help the market: primarily by creating a market for SSTO spacecraft. The aerospace industry can justify spending even very large amounts of money designing a spaceship if they know they have a chance of actually selling some once they're done. Boeing spent tens millions of dollars just designing the 777, knowing that they would have a market for them. Boeing would spend at least that much on creating an SSTO, if it were assured that the government would buy them. 

One other important qualification should be that the winning company could also sell the SSTO to private industry. FedEx, among other private companies, did research which indicated if an SSTO with sufficiently large cargo were available at around the price of a 747, they could operate several for point to point cargo shipping on earth, and have a good profit margin. (If you can get to orbit, that same vehicle can reach any point on earth in little over 45 minutes. When it absolutely, positively has to be there in an hour...) But FedEx is not going to pony up the development costs, any more than it would for the cargo jets it flies today. 

Once we have cheap, regular and frequent access to space, then everything will start to happen - orbital hotels, miracle materials developed in zero-g labs, lunar colonies, the works. But we will only get there if NASA is forced to get out of the way, and focus on what it's good at: research and deep space exploration.

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 2

On Language

As far as semantic arguments over what is and is not an empire go, I tend to fall on the side of the dictionary - if you rule it, own it, use it for your economic purposes without particularly caring what happens to the subject population, you're talking empire. Much as I abhor the term "American Global Hegemony" it is more accurate. We have power, influence and what not coming out of our ears, more in fact than we quite know what to do with. We are first, second and third among equals. But we haven't created an empire. 

Going halfway around the world to terminate the leader of a nation that pissed us off may be uppity, forceful, arrogant, domineering, renegade, of doubtful wisdom, wrong or even evil. But if after we do, we give it back, it's not imperial. Perhaps its more like empire's kindler, gentler, third cousin twice removed on the maternal side. And she has a great personality. 

And as for blogging politesse, I just wanted to assure all of my fellow tuppenny pundits that what I have done up to this point is not an attack on the morals, intelligence, ancestry, judgment, honor, personal grooming habits or sexual orientation of anyone. That way, when I do make a personal attack, it will be obvious that that was what I wanted to do. 

"Cultural Historian," huh? I heard that cultural historians were four-flushing, devious, deviant, dimwitted pinheads who couldn't narrate their way out of a wet paper sack. And that when they weren't failing to write even mediocre history, they spent their time engaged in questionable unsafe same sex practices with their aunt-mothers, brother-fathers, and any filthy goat that happens to be wandering by. And they have the perspicacity, good sense and wisdom of a retarded paint chip on crack.

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

Well, before the big question...

You say the attacks on Bush are similar to the attacks on Reagan. You seem to imply that the attacks on Reagan were misplaced, that he wasn't an amiable dunce, that he did have a grasp on policy, wasn't leading us to hell, and faced down the global menace of communism. So are you saying that Bush is no Reagan, and that this comparison is wrong?

So is Bush stupid, unable to comprehend the policies he's advocating (or not advocating), and not facing down terrorism? And you're asking if this behavior is deliberate? Or that critics were right to criticise Reagan but wrong on Bush?

Forgive me, but I don't see what you're getting at.

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

The President and his legacy-in-the-making

The vehemence-- nay, venom-- with which Bush's opponents speak of him brings to mind another Republican President, a President whose intellect was ridiculed by many, who was accused of not having a grasp on the niceties of policy, whose administration was heralded as a new direction and a road to hell, who sometimes demonstrated an offhand callousness about matters he didn't care about or fully appreciate, who took it upon himself to face down a global menace threatening the lives and liberty of freedom-loving peoples everywhere.

"I know Ronald Reagan, and you sir, are no Ronald Reagan!"

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

On Empire

I think these days "empire" can be construed more broadly than the American Heritage Dictionary tells it. Though I'm going to have to think more on this: If going into a nation halfway around the world and removing a leader who is repugnant to us, if not actually an act of empire, does not comprise at least sidling up to empire's hot sister at a party and trying to hook up with her, how so? 

Apologies for that last sentence there. I had sugar packets at lunch. 

Also, I'm a cultural historian, not some fancy-pants political scientist like Buckethead. 
 

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

Politeness

Bucket, I know full well that you say what you mean whether in writing or face to face, and Mike, I know the same about you. I've known each of you for years, and am waaaaay beyond letting opinions get the better of my esteem for you, as long as you can adequately explain yourself. I hope I have been civil as well.

But please, let's not go too far with that. Shit-talking makes the world go round. On this subject, and pursuant to my own apparent flirtation with moral equivalence over the war (we'll have WORDS about that, Buckethead, WORDS, like "cromulent," "embiggen," and "guignol"), I leave you with this quote, aptly enough, about morality:

"I don't give a tupenny fuck about your moral conundrum, you meat-headed shit-sack!"

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

The indispensible Mark Steyn on Rumsfeld

Money Quote:

"That's Rumsfeld's function -- to take the polite fictions and drag them back to the real world. During the Afghan campaign, CNN's Larry King asked him, "Is it very important that the coalition hold?" The correct answer -- the Powell-Blair-Gore-Annan answer -- is, of course, "Yes." But Rummy decided to give the truthful answer: "No." He went on to explain why: "The worst thing you can do is allow a coalition to determine what your mission is." Such a man cannot be happy at the sight of the Guinean tail wagging the French rectum of the British hind quarters of the American dog."

Wonderful imagery.

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

Politeness

Like Mike, I should like to say that I don't mean any of what I write as an assault on anyone in particular. (If I am assaulting anyone, I'll be specific.) I tend to come across a bit stronger in writing than I do in person.

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

Mom

I don't have a problem showing favoritism to Israel over Palestine. Of the two groups, one is a parliamentary democracy (and one fifth of the members of this parliament are from the same ethnic and religious group as the enemy.) with freedom of speech and press, a market economy, and rule of law. The other is a terrorist organization that plans and executes the murders of civilians, and ruthlessly supresses all dissent (collaboration) and embezzles billions of dollars into Swiss bank accounts. I can discriminate between the two, rather easily.

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

American Empire?

I posted a poll on my friend's website - it was still there as of this morning - asking, "what is the most ruthless empire in world history?" I included as one choice, "American Global Hegemony." Right now, the response (from an admittedly small pool of respondents) is down to 28%. But for the first several days, half of the votes were going to America. I found this shocking but not surprising. Does America have an empire? Or even imperialistic aims? 
 

Empire, n. 1.

a. political unit having an extensive territory or comprising a number of territories or nations and ruled by a single supreme authority. b. The territory included in such a unit.

2. An extensive enterprise under a unified authority: a publishing empire. 

3. Imperial or imperialistic sovereignty, domination, or control 

(From The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company.

While we have fought wars, we have not annexed conquered nations. (Okay, we did in the Spanish-American War, but they are all independent, or have voted to remain part of the U.S.) We occupied Europe, but as France and Germany proved recently, we do not control them or dictate to them. Naturally, we have a great deal of influence. But the last six months in the UN shows that it is not infinite. We can create an empire, but we haven't and we won't. America's position in the world is nothing like the British, French, Roman, Persian, Chinese or other historical empire. As for decline, I know nothing lasts forever. But I don't see the U.S. going down in flames anytime soon. Not in the next fifty years, probably not for a while yet. 

Something like imperial overstretch is a serious concern, but remember that our relative military power is going through the roof as military expenditures as a percentage of GNP are declining. We are becoming more powerful with less effort - we are not sacrificing economics to maintain our power, as many empires in the past have done. While we worry about other potential rivals - Japan and East Asia are in the shitter, economically, Europe has been in the doldrums for decades, Russia is a third world nation, and China could be on the verge of complete collapse in ten years. Who is going to give us the payback? And why would they? If Iraq, liberated from Saddam, becomes more prosperous and free, they are not going to be gunning for us. Remember how the people of Afghanistan celebrated after we destroyed the Taliban. There will be some resentment for our power and success, but I don't see your scenario coming to pass. 

I have painted an optimistic picture, to be sure. But the problem is not from plans not surviving contact with the enemy. Militarily, we include that in the plan. We have the flexibility to adjust to the situation as it evolves. We're good at that. And even a moderate success is still, well, a success. As far as military conflict goes, I don't think you'll see major resistance from anything other than the Special Republican Guard, perhaps 13,000 troops. As for the people, Saddam rules a totalitarian state - all segments of the population have been set against each other to allow Saddam's small tribe from Tikrut to maintain power. There won't be a Baathist resistance movement. 

Finally, in a representative democracy, or Republic, we elect officials to make decisions. We don't have plebiscites on every issue like Athens in 500bc. If we are unhappy, we bitch and we moan, and then elect someone else next time. So no, we don't have direct control over the government minute to minute, but the existence of an unhappy electorate will definitely affect the actions of our public servants. And we have the ultimate power to remove those who displease us - though we may have to wait a couple years. I was deeply unhappy with our leadership for most of the nineties, but I never said I lived in a "republic." (BTW, I'm really getting frustrated with "scare quotes." This mode of expression has gotten a lot more common over the past few years. Sure it fits in with our ironic mode of existence, but imaging the speaker twitching the two first fingers of both hands beside his head as he speaks is getting to me.)

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

Europe, oh Europe

From George Will:

WASHINGTON -- In Europe, anti-Semitism has been called the socialism of fools, which is confusing because socialism is the socialism of fools. Confusion has been compounded because Europe, nearly six decades after the continent was rendered largely Judenrein, has anti-Semitism without Jews, as when the ambassador to Britain from France -- yes, our moral tutor, France -- calls Israel a "shitty little country."

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

Revision

Upon reviewing your rebuttal to my rebuttal of your rebuttal of Mike's and Mike's theses, I find I committed one gaffe. I managed to leave the impression that I support the Kyoto and World Court Treaties. Well I don't. Even though the US first proposed the World Court. I totally agree that international relations is just anarchy-- I would argue it's managed anarchy-- and in that atmosphere instruments such as World Courts become prying tools to leverage sovereignty out of the hands of individual nations. It stands to each person to decide when and whether that is a good thing. I most cases I think it's not. 

So, yes, I am on crack, but it's a crack of omission, not a crack of insanity, to coin a metaphor that should never, ever, ever be used again. 

In closing, just want to make clear what I think the biggest peril is: after Spidey kicks Doc Octopus' ass, he doesn't have to care for his family. We will. My question is how, and for how long? Afghanistan made a good start of it, but American material and advisory support for its budding institutions is not exactly overwhelming right now, and they are in danger of slipping into chaos as a result. Iraq will be a touchier situation and will require a more delicate hand that I'm not confident anyone in the current administration knows how to provide. Who are the civilians they want to have run the place? 

ANYWAY... enough for now. I think we've all staked out our territory, and all that really remains is to wait twenty-four and a half hours from now to see what actually happens. God bless America.

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

No Space

Will post space stuff later, I have to go home and work on the houses.

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

Its all about the big picture

Well, AI unit:Edward_Gibbon00132 may be able to pack sufficient nuance and non-simplisme to satisfy you into 2500 words, but I can't.

But what are the perils? Is the UN gonna take us out? They can't agree to remove a pathetic weakling of a vile toad like Saddam, what are they going to do to us? Sanctions? I would laugh for years on that one. We, France, Britain, China and Russia (and Israel and Pakistan and India) have nukes. That is enough. I don't think it unreasonable to think that keeping nukes out of the hands of deranged cracksmoker like Saddam.

As for finances, we will pay for the war, and we will sell Iraq's oil to finance the reconstruction. Even in a slow economy, 100 billion is still not that much money. Its only a one time expense, for cryin' out loud.

All due respect, but are you on crack? The world court is a kangaroo court that seems expressly designed to screw with us. And, it violates not national soveriegnty, but several of the bill of rights. We can't sign a treaty that violates individual rights. And Kyoto imposes economy wrecking restrictions on us, when our emissions are decreasing anyway, while leaving India, China and the rest of the world free to pollute and kill snail darters. Most European nations haven't ratified it either. There have been no real consequences, let alone peril, from not signing those ridiculouse, disingenuous treaties.

We do have a reasonably coherent foriegn policy, looked at from far enough off, and that's enough for this buckethead. No policy in this veil of tears will ever be perfectly consistent. But as long as we are whacking the bad guys, well okay then.

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

How Spiderman relates to international power politics, Part II

In my opinion, the practical side is pretty clearly a definite go. Saddam gone, threat to America reduced, increased leverage in the Middle East, decent shot at the good life for Iraqis, and France gets the shaft in Europe. 

The theoretical questions are harder to answer. John remains conflicted about America's role in the world, and Mike poses several questions on when wars are just. What I think it boils down to is that Norway is different from the United States, and that international relations in general bear no resemblance to relations between the nations of the west, let alone between citizens of this country. 

Last one first: international relations is the story of who gets screwed by who. History is a narrative of the follies and betrayals of mankind. International politics is just history in realtime. Over the centuries, we have seen that there has never been a time when someone could cry, Rodney King-like, "Why can't we all just get along?" and have it stick. 

As a general rule, nations will act in their own interest. "There are no permanent allies, only permanent interests." This means that like minded nations can sign treaties, trade and work together; band together for common defense; etc. In this, they are like individuals. However, nations and more specifically their rulers are not always, well, reasonable. Mao, Stalin, Hitler, Pol Pot, in rough order of murderousness are a few examples. Attempts at creating supranational organizations to fill the role that a nation has for individuals have uniformly failed. International relations is an anarchy. 

Inside the United States, you and I can sign a contract (treaty), conduct business (international trade), etc, in the knowledge that the U.S. government will prevent abuses and ensure justice. With the threat of force backing a consistent, universal law. This is largely why we all get along - because we know that in we aren't going to get killed for making the wrong decision, and that everyone plays by the same rules. This situation is also the case in most of Europe, Japan, and a few other places. 

Europe was able to create among themselves the beginnings of an international order. Why were they able to do this? Because the United States guaranteed the security of every western European nation. They were able to negotiate a larger framework because we provided security for absolutely everyone, not just the big nations. In the larger world, this is hardly the case. For most of the world treaties, resolutions and what have you have absolutely no meaning unless backed with a threat of retaliation for violating the terms of the treaty, resolution, etc. This is a Hobbesian world. As a nation, we have the sovereign right to decide on foreign policy, war, etc. We make these decisions in the light of our own security and interests. To do otherwise is foolish. 

Happily, though, we are a good people, by and large. What we want is for everyone to get along, and have stuff, and not kill or oppress each other. We tend to use our power for these purposes. The United States, far more than the United Nations, has been a force for order and prosperity and freedom in the world. Because of the investment of trillions of dollars for arms, and at the cost of hundreds of thousands of American lives, we helped free Europe first from the horrors of Fascism, then from Communism. Our commitment to these principles over the last seven decades means that millions who were oppressed are now free. 

Which is my segue into the other point, that the U.S. is not Norway. Because the United States is so phenomenally wealthy that even our poor are richer than 90% of the world's population, and because we are so technologically advanced and basically just really damn puissant, we can with very little effort (just over 3% of GNP) expenditure field armed forces that could conceivably take out every other military force in the world. The reason that this is the case is that we have liberty, and freedom, and rule of law. This allows us to be the free-wheeling, innovating, unpredictable, whimsical materialist, deeply religious, rig and run, can do, fuck with me and you're dead but after we kill you will bring you back to life and build you a mansion kind of people that we are. 

We are the eight thousand pound gorilla. Even though it may be unfair for Norway, different physical laws apply to gorillas of our size. We affect international relations whether we want to or not. When we sneeze, the French dive under a couch and wave a white flag. 

Robert Kagan had a wonderful analogy. Europe and America are like two people trapped in a forest with a rabid, hungry bear. The American has a laser sighted .50 cal Barrett sniper rifle with homing bullets. The Europeans have a swiss army knife. Naturally, these two will have a different perception of threat levels. It makes sense for the European to hang back, try to reason with the bear, or run away. The bear seeking bullet armed American is going to think, "I'll just shoot that B-ar." 

We define acceptable threat levels, because we can act if we deem the threat significant. We weigh the benefits of actions against the cost. And even a very low probability of getting nuked at work (one block from the White House as I write this) is unacceptable. We fought the Axis in WWII directly, and directly caused millions of civilian deaths. And we were right to do so. We decided to fight the communists indirectly, and caused no Russian casualties, though perhaps hundreds of thousands of civilians dies in Korea, Vietnam, or through our inaction in Cambodia, etc. 

We have the right to do this because we have a republican system of government that represents the entire nation, not just the will of crack smoking dictator. If the leaders of this country do things that are wrong, disastrous or immoral, then the American people will through the bums out. (eventually.) We have a free, self correcting governing system. We have for the better part of the last century fought around the world to increase freedom. Large parts of the world are now free, or at least much freer than they were. And Iraq is next. 

You can't apply the Golden Rule to every instance of foreign policy. "What if somebody did that to you?" Well, they can't. What if a rapist complained to a policeman who shot him in the course of arrest, and said, "What if somebody did that to you?" Well, the policeman was justified, and the rapist isn't. 

Moral equivalence is not a valid argument, because we are not morally equivalent to the Iraq and Saddam, or Saudi Arabia, or Syria, or North Korea, or even the first victims of WMD, militarist Japan. Using tear gas on some dirty hippy protestors throwing rocks at McD's is not the same as dropping sarin gas on a village of 5000. 

Though we are not the same as Norway, we will not invade them. Now that we are past the need to ally ourselves with any fascist wingnut dictator who happened to be (or claimed to be) anticommunist, we are targeting the supporters of state terrorism, collectors of WMD, the threats to the tranquility of the world. The war on terror was specifically not a war on Al Quaida. It is war against all who use terror, or support those who do. Saddam counts on both. We don't need a direct connection to Osama, though there are connections. And all the other nations are, to paraphrase Francis from Stripes, "On our list."

I think that this is part of a long term - not plan - but rather process where the U.S. through direct action or by example moves towards freedom. The United States is like a wrecking ball for tyranny - every time we go up against one, we destroy it, and not always with military might. We are subverting the Middle East as we speak, and through no particular effort of ours. Just by being our crazy, whacky selves. Since we cannot crawl into a hole and drag it in after us, we must use our powers for good. (Which is why the dirty hippy protestors are important - if they ever manage to convince the middle of the body politic that things is goin wrong, then it all comes to a dead stop. Self correcting, and even dirty hippies can be useful.)

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

Re: Touche

Except that they're not going up. 

(and you jumped in too early, there is a Spiderman Part II coming.) 
 

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

But did Spider-Man

...ever have to go live in Doc Octopus' house, and take on financial and moral responsibility for feeding and sheltering his family, settling family disputes? 

I see your points about our moral imperative, the potential benefits of destabilizing the Middle East, etc, but I think you tend present matters as less complicated then they are. In five hundred years, when "AI unit:Edward_Gibbon00132" writes the Grand History of America, I hope things turn out the way you describe, with grand historical sweep intact. In fact, I hope that's how they turn out tomorrow. But, I'm not as confident as you are that this is the case. 

There are very real perils in choosing to go outside the UN to effect a coup in a foreign nation, and also in insisting that Iraq give up its stores of "WMD's" while keeping our own intact. 

There are very real perils in embarking on what could be a long-term occupation of another country when there has been no talk of how to finance this effort. What-- is the UN gonna foot the bill? 

There are also very real perils in choosing not to join the World Court and sign the Kyoto accord, which would evolve some sovereignty over US citizens to international bodies, while simultaneously pursuing policies that make other nations cede sovereignty to us when we deem the situation too grim. 

Understand, I'm not pleading for a totally internally consistent Weltschauung for US diplomacy to work within, that's impossible. Rather, I'm asking for the government to at least give some thought and consideration to the inconsistencies that can undermine the very endeavor they are working to build.

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

Today, right now...

...It's all about:

  • The Clash, Combat Rock and London Calling
  • Elvis Costello, Armed Forces
  • Talking Heads, Fear of Music

...and not at all about

  • Toby Keith
  • Sgt. Barry Sadler
  • Lee Greenwood

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

How Spiderman relates to international power politics

Was arguing with Mike Burton the other day. Mike is uncomfortable with the U.S. exercising its military might in the Middle East. He was basically making the argument, "What right do we have to interfere?" Fair enough. So I asked Mike, a huge Spiderman fan, "What about, 'With great power comes great responsibility'"?” 

We have a moral obligation to use our power for good. We must think very carefully, to determine what course of action will bring about the most good. During the Cold War, we allied ourselves with some repugnant dictators, but with the larger purpose of fighting a greater evil, communism. Now, that reason no longer exists - we need no longer coddle jackbooted thugs in third world capitals. When we look at Saddam Hussein, we can see that he is clearly, solidly in the repugnant dictator category. He oppresses the Iraqi people. Rape, torture, arbitrary executions, economic privation and near total lack of freedom is the daily lot of the Iraqi citizen. 

Also, he gives support to terrorists of all stripes as a matter of state policy. He has invaded his neighbors. He has developed chemical and biological weapons, and used them. He has attempted to develop nuclear weapons, with the help of the French. There is a strong likelihood that Saddam would either provide such weapons to terrorists, or adopt terrorist methodology himself to deliver those weapons to American targets. These are all reasons that pretty much everyone agrees the world would be a better place if Saddam predeceased us. (The French have been very careful not to talk about Iraq - their opposition is based on America, not Iraq.) 

On the other side of the moral calculus, we must take into consideration the consequences of using military force. This, I think, is where John has the most problems. Mike seems to have more problems with justifications for war, even admitting that Saddam is the star of his own personal villainous Jackasserama. There are two groups of sane arguments against a U.S. invasion. One focuses on the practical aspects:

1) Civilian casualties 

2) Diplomatic blowback / Increase anti-Americanism worldwide 

3) Destabilize the Middle East / Make things worse

The other is more theoretical.

1) Just war theory / Applying the Golden Rule to International relations 

2) Moral Equivalence Arguments 

3) Great Power politics

In the first category, we have some potentially serious - less than optimal - outcomes. Are we justified in invading when things might end up worse? Are we justified in invading - even if we succeed in all our goals - if thirty thousand Iraqis die? These are the core questions. 

First, based on my study of the U.S. military, I can virtually guarantee that the now imminent conflict with Iraq will be swift and relatively bloodless. There will be no Stalingrads. (Ve vill not have much fun in Stalingrad, no.) The U.S. armed forces are in the early stages of a revolution in military affairs that is equal in importance to the adoption of gunpowder. No other nation has begun this process. The result is that our military has an unparalleled comparative lethality and effectiveness. 

The war will be over in two or three weeks, and civilian casualties will be low - probably less than 2000, though we will hear complaints from the left that casualties are in the tens or even hundreds of thousands. The Iraqi army will for the most part simply surrender. Those elements of the Army that do resist will be swiftly annihilated. The Iraqi army is to the U.S. military what the Zulus were to the British army. And yes, I know about Isandhlwhana - which was the result of stupendous idiocy on the part of the British commander - who did absolutely everything wrong. More important, as an example, was Rourke's Drift, where 100 British soldiers held off 5000 Zulus for almost a day, killing half of them in the process. Technology and discipline allowed the British to defeat vastly numerically superior forces. The same will happen in Iraq. (and the Iraqi army isn't as big as it once was) 

So, that objection is out of the way. The other two are closely related, and harder to figure. However, given that the calculated risk in terms of battlefield and civilian casualties is so low, that gives us wriggle room in our calculations for the other factors. 

Here are some points to consider. The French have always been pains in the ass. Their behavior over the last several months should come as no particular surprise, though we should wonder what they hope to gain from it. Nearly every European nation except France, Germany and Belgium officially supports us. Around the world, the reaction is mixed, but hardly uniformly against us. China and Russia are opposed, but China is still officially a communist nation for Christ's sake, and Russia has legitimate sphere of influence style arguments against American involvement, as well as lucrative trade deals and mountains of uncollected debt with the current regime. 

All of these nations are acting in what they perceive to be their own national interest. They are accorded no opprobrium for doing so. Only the United States is targeted with this criticism. The French, for example, have been fighting for months in the Ivory Coast without UN sanction. The African terrorists didn't destroy the Eiffel tower and kill 3000 French citizens, either. 

I don't think the world will hate us any more (or any less) after we induce Saddam to shuffle off this mortal coil. Most people will breathe a quiet sigh of relief that someone did the job. And though they wish the cowboy Americans weren't so damnably powerful, they certainly weren't going to do the job themselves. 

In the next couple years, I think that the real diplomatic blowback will be on the French and the Germans. They have pissed us off. They will be locked out of the settlement in post war Iraq. France's arrogant attempts to usurp leadership of the still nascent European superstate have alarmed much of southern and eastern Europe. I don't think that they'll be able to quietly slip through the pro-French EU constitution. And they won't get any help from us. France's position in the world has already been weakened, and will be weakened further once we successfully and very quickly put an end to Saddam's regime. 

As for destabilizing the Middle East, that's not a bug, that's a feature. We will be installed directly in the geopolitical heart of the Middle East. We'll have bases that no one will be able to dictate the use of but us. U.S. Army, Air Force and Marine units will be bordering Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia; the three largest surviving Islamic terrorist supporting nations. We will be able to put the arm on them, but good. 

And remember, similar fears were voiced about the first Gulf War. The eruption of the "Arab street" after our stunning victory was rather… anticlimactic. I think the same will be true here. And as for making things worse in Iraq, I don't see how they could be significantly worse. If we succeed in establishing a new polity that is as prosperous and free as say, South Korea in 1970, we will have achieved a great victory. If we do better - and we have in the past - then that's just gravy. A prosperous and free Iraq would virtually win the war on terrorism all by itself.

Posted by Buckethead Buckethead on   |   § 0

And then there's this

kind of thing that makes me momentarily favor "regime change" at all costs, immediately, without reservation. From the Times of London comes this story. Click the link and read it, but please steel yourself first, as it includes a horrifying witness statement taken two weeks ago from an Iraqi who fled Saddam's rule. [link no longer available, -ed. It involved people being fed into woodchippers.]

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

Post From Another Blog

Go read this post from The Volokh Conspiracy's Orin Kerr. He weighs the arguments for and against war, based on expected outcomes. Money quote:

I envy those who seem certain that on balance one side is substantially more likely than the other. I see it as pretty close, or more accurately, far beyond my expertise to make a call one way or the other. All of which leaves me uncertain as to whether the President's strategy is the right one, and leaves me thinking, "Man, I sure hope he knows what he's doing."

'bout right.

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

Riposte

Mike, as stated, I agree with you in large part about the war. Very queasy. Just a couple minor points so I don't come off like some Windy City quisling.

First: I think it's a little unfair to classify tear gas as a chemical weapon in the context of the war debate, although it manifestly is one on technical grounds. The term "Chemical Weapons" is undergoing some definition creep, as is "Weapon of Mass Destruction," but it can be understood to mean harsher agents such as mustard and nerve gases rather than the milder stuff used for crowd control. However, your point about the likelihood of police tear-gassing protesters is well taken. The discourse about the war, both on the pro- and anti- side has sunk very, very low, and a postmodernist might view tear gas as a type of "speech," perhaps as an argument-ender for the pro-war government. But I digress. That's about as much postmodernism as I can stomach in one day.

Second: The links between al Qaeda and Palestine, as you rightly point out, are clear and many. However, leaving the "issue for Israel" to deal with might not be the best strategy. After all, it is US policy to support our allies in their own struggles against terrorism, and leaving aside the thorny, convoluted mess that is Israeli/Palestinian fighting, if Israel begins working to get at al Qaeda operatives in Palestine, doesn't the US have a duty to help? Actually, that I'm just asking because I'm not so sure myself, again, given the history of that region.

I had NO IDEA that Ireland might be harboring al Qaeda fugitives. What's your source-- I want to know more!

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0

Due Process

A troubling story from Stuart Taylor, via The Volokh Conspiracy. If this is true, this is sad news regarding the way the USA is treating even suspected terrorists. I believe strongly that every criminal-- even terrorists-- deserve due process. If, as believed, they are terrorists, they will be dealt with. If, on the other hand, they are victims of mistaken identity, they can as it currently stands be cast into a "Kafkaesque" (Taylor's word) world of permanant jails and privation without appeal or recourse.

This is on of the many ways in which the US must watch its step, or risk sinking to the level of the people we are fighting.

Posted by Johno Johno on   |   § 0