perfidy

The OpinionJournal has an interesting piece up on the possible fate of Cuba once the murderous ratfink dictator Castro finally claims gets his ticket punched. The article is based on the conclusions of Mark Falcoff of the American Enterprise Institute, in his book Cuba, the Morning After.

Falcoff concludes that post-Castro Cuba will have a hard time recovering from more than four decades of communist dictatorship. "Failed states typically become--like Haiti--platforms for the export of illicit substances, centers of international criminality, and vessels leaking illegal immigrants," he says. "Perhaps, indeed, the island will somehow avoid this fate, but present indicators do not offer much encouragement."

The article continues, "Other obstacles abound, Mr. Falcoff argues, even if the dictatorship topples like the Berlin Wall. Cuba, once prosperous, is now desperately poor, and one of Castro's legacies is the destruction of the whole framework of civil society. Gone are the entrepreneurs of Spanish-immigrant culture. Gone are the vibrant business groups, labor federations and professional societies. Gone are the engines of wealth, like a profitable sugar industry. The regime has trashed the island's environment and badly damaged its human capital. Cuba now ranks among the world's top five nations in suicides per capita. Even psychologically healthy Cubans are burdened by years of indoctrination, with its bias against individual responsibility and risk-taking.

About the only thing that might avert this rather grim scenario is the return of Cuban-Americans who have combined Cuban culture with American entrepreneurial skills and respect for civil soceity. Cuba was once the richest country in Latin America in per capita income. Now it is by far the poorest. Hopefully, this can change back.