Playing with the Big Boys
The ever-useful space.com is reporting that the consensus among those who watch these things is that the Chinese will launch their first manned space mission sometime in the next couple weeks. The article is well worth the read, as it examines some of the political and strategic considerations that many be prompted by a successful Chinese mission.
Many observers feel that the space flight program is merely a cloak for Chinese military development. Others feel that the mission is a prestige building exercise designed to reinforce the legitimacy of the Communist goeverment. Personally, I think it is both.
China is in many respects like Columbus, Ohio. Columbus is a decent sized city in a populous state. But it is alway overshadowed by Cleveland and Cincinnati. When I lived in Columbus in the nineties, there was constant talk of becoming a "major league" city. Much of this centered around efforts to acquire by any means necessary a pro baseball or football team. Of course, lying halfway between the Reds and the Bengals on one side, and the Indians and Browns on the other made this unlikely in the extreme. So, they got a Hockey team. But there were other efforts as well - all aimed at putting Columbus "on the map." When the number of people inside the Columbus city limits surpassed for the first time the number in Cleveland, Columbus cried, "We're the biggest city in Ohio!" Of course this completely ignored the fact that the Cleveland metro population is four times larger, and also that Cleveland has been less, well, assiduous in annexing neighboring communities.
China is convinced that does not get the respect that it deserves. So, this space mission is in some sense like Columbus' NHL team. But unlike Columbus, the Chinese have been making a strenuous effort over the last decade plus to modernize their armed forces. This space mission has obvious relevance to that effort. That China feels the need to pursue both of these ideas could be taken to indicate that China envisions for itself a grander role on the world stage.
And just remember the last time somebody had that set of ideas.
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Seriously, let's hope this
Seriously, let's hope this mission is in no sense like the hapless, hopeless Columbus Blue Jackets.
So... we are well informed and ready for the Sputnik event. What do you want to bet that when China launches, it leads to mass hysteria and wild hand-waving among the press and punditocracy?
I've been thinking about that
I've been thinking about that, and I'm really not sure. The media seem on the whole pro-China, and whipping up nationalistic fear of the rising monster of China doesn't exactly fit their idiom. Some will cry that the sky is falling, or to grind this or the other political ax. My prediction is that it will be treated as a man bites dog, freak of nature style story by most of the press. I could be wrong.
I don't think the media is ready to view the Chinese as a strategic threat - although many will take the opportunity to whack at NASA.