See, it's a thingie!
Ralph Peters, an insightful military commentator (and former Army officer) said that the truism on military plans was reversed in the Iraq war - no Iraqi army was surviving contact with our battle plan.
The remarkable success of the war phase may have led to confidence that other plans were equally good. Of the things that Wolfowitz mentions, many could not have been easily foreseen, given the closed nature of Iraqi soceity before we arrived, and the precedent of the first gulf war.
Adaptability is key in winning wars, likewise in peacetime. As long as we don't delude ourselved, we will be able to adjust our plans and our thinking to meet problems as they are.
Once Iraqi oil starts flowing, that may reduce the financial burden somewhat. And 29.5 billion compared to the total US budget is not a deal killer.
Keep in mind though, Wolfowitz and others have often said that it would cost money, and problems would have to be detected and solved. This statement isn't the first. (Still welcome, though.)
Hopefully, the mudville nine will not fall over themselves criticizing the administration for problems that would have had to be solved regardless of whether they had been accurately foretold or not. Openness and accountability are all good, especially in this phase.
(As a side note, Clueless has a new post on why we never should have and still shouldn't reveal long term plans. This reasoning wouldn't apply to the civilian administration of Iraq, though.)
on
| § 2
§ 2 Comments
[ You're too late, comments are closed ]
Is it fisking if you agree?
Is it fisking if you agree?
"The remarkable success of the war phase may have led to confidence that other plans were equally good. "
This is undoubtedly true. The neocon movement is nothing if not (over)confident.
"Once Iraqi oil starts flowing, that may reduce the financial burden somewhat. And 29.5 billion compared to the total US budget is not a deal killer."
1) Any idea when that will be? Who will control the oil infrastructure and shipping? This is one area that Bush better be careful... it would be rather unseemly, not to mention in bad taste for too many of his oil cronies to suddenly (or is that, "continue to get") the plum contracts.
2) $29.5b is not a deal-killer, but don't dance around what I said. That's just for WATER and POWER. That's like discussing the cost of building a house and only bringing up the costs of wiring and plumbing.
No.
No.
If one american oil company gets a contract in Iraq, Hesiod and a thousand others will be screaming "oil cronies! oil cronies! it was a war for oil, and you wouldn't listen! Nyah!" What are we going to do, give the contracts to TotalFinaElf and YUKOS?
As things settle down, costs will diminish as local capacity begins to increase. Oil will offset what remains. We will certainly pay a significant sum. (billion here, billion there; pretty soon you're talking real money) A hundred billion over five years might be worth it, but I don't know that would even cost that much.