perfidy

The Watergate scandal typically overshadows Nixon's one real accomplishment - peeling the Chinese off the Soviet Bloc. Rather than a monolithic communist world united in opposition to the good 'ol US of A, after the early seventies, you had a much friendlier duolithic communist world; one where the Sovs had to seriously worry about the billion hungry Chinese and the longest land border on Earth. All was hunky-dory until the unraveling of the Soviet colossus through decades of political calculation out the window.

A period of happy innocence followed, followed by a rude awakening in the form of fanatical Islamofascists blowing up our buildings. But this, too has skewed our geopolitical reasoning. For all that terrorists and their state sponsors do pose a threat, it is not an existential threat. We need to take action, certainly, to defend ourselves, and the best defense is usually a good offense. Nevertheless, there is no way that Islamic legions will be landing on the Jersey shore anytime in this or any other century. Islamic bomber fleets will not rain destruction down on our cities, unless they somehow manage to get a five finger discount on the one of our air forces.

The only real potential (for now) existential threat is China. The Soviets, god bless them, were evil. But they were evil and stupid. We had the great good fortune that our greatest enemies saddled themselves with the most backward, inefficient and retarded economic system ever devised by the mind of man. This was more than a little help in a half century of Cold War. The Chinese communists are just as evil, but have jettisoned the worst of the economic stupidity of the command economy. Evil and smart puts me more in mind of say, Germany in 1936 rather than the USSR in 1980. An evil leadership, with a vibrant and productive economy, and with a distinctly (not to say xenophobic or fanatical) nationalist ideology is not a good thing to have in the world's most populous nation.

Germany was outnumbered by each of its three major opponents in the Second World War. This will not be the case in any hypothetical confrontation with China. And China is clearly laying the groundwork for confrontation with the US. This whole rant was sparked by this article which describes the increasing cooperation between the Russian and Chinese militaries. The Chinese are now the senior partner in a solidifying strategic alliance that embraces the majority of Asia's landmass.

Here's a prediction: if the Chinese invade Taiwan, the only people on our side will be Great Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea, and India. And of course, the Taiwanese. Russia will be soldily in the Chinese hip pocket, and the Europeans will sit on the sidelines and condemn everyone. But they'll only mean it when they say it to us.