Napoleon Redux
The USS Clueless has a recent series of posts touching on the growing rift between Europe and America, and the underlying reasons. Toward the end of the most recent one, den Beste speculates on what might happen if the economic decline he foresees for Europe's future comes to pass. He concludes that a serious possibility is the rebirth of Fascism, this time in a unitary European Federation.
Some other people have commented on this as well. The Limey Brit makes the point that an essential characteristic of Fascism is nationalism, something that is unlikely to develop in the near future as a pan-European phenomenon. So while he agrees with the coming relative economic decline of Europe, he feels that a more likely end scenario is a wave of 1848 - style revolutions and unrest leading to an intra European war if demagogues seize power in one or more regions.
If (big if) current trends in European economies continue, the European economies will be in big trouble. While the political landscape makes it seem unlikely that the EU or its member states will adopt what to Americans are the obvious solutions to their problems, the Europeans are not irretrievably stupid. If things get bad enough, in all likelihood they will muddle through and make at least enough reforms to allow their economies to recover. Who would have thought that Britain of the mid-1970s would in only a couple years turn to Margaret Thatcher to lead them out of the economic wilderness of socialism? Similar reversals could happen in Germany, or even France.
Nevertheless, it is interesting to speculate about the worst case scenarios. As I mentioned in the comments on the Limey Brit's post I linked above, while Nationalism is unlikely to develop in a pan European sense, that does not mean that you couldn't get a fascist state out of the EU. Napoleon, in the early part of his career, had many admirers throughout Europe. To the progressives in Germany and elsewhere, Nappy represented the wave of the future. Many in Germany welcomed the French army as liberators. Of course, they soon changed their minds - but not after the French had seized control of the vaster part of Europe.
I can easily imagine a demagogue - especially if he is from one of the smaller countries, but yet with a base of power in either France or Germany - mouthing the right kind of cant and moving to the top of the political system. Especially given that the proposed EU government is mostly isolated from any kind of accountability to the people, or even the member states.
At this point, European governments avoid military spending; but a functional dictatorship, backed and implemented by the EU bureacrats in Brussels could easily turn to a military build up to distract attention from economic woes. In fact, this scenario would be more likely just before economic collapse rather than after.
And then, we'd have to go over and kick their ass all over again.
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§ 7 Comments
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Seven hundred plus people
Seven hundred plus people read this, and not one commented. Sheesh.
I do not see that one
I do not see that one charismatic political figure could emerge from an EU country outside of France and Germany and have the backing of the French and Germans. French and German identities are too strong for such acceptance. However, if such a figure arose in either France or Germany, I see the EU fracturing with the central, eastern and southern countries leaving. Those countries have 'Been there, done that and have the scars to prove it.'
I see as more likely in the western and northern EU countries significant and almost certainly violent confrontations between unassimilated Moslem societies and their frustrated sharia law aspirations and the native citizenry. How these conflicts are resolved will determine identity of those nation states. Already there are deep strains appearing in Norway, Sweden and Holland. The French and Germans have even higher levels of friction and discontent. Will there be low level terror campaigns directed by Moslems against their host countries? Will there be civil wars? Will there be bloodbaths and defeat of the Moslem minorities with physical expulsions out of Europe to North Africa and the Middle East? With the aging of the native European citizens, is there a good chance that the Moslem minorities may win any open civil war?
Long term, the EU will be facing a fragile economic base and a bitterly divided social fabric. I do not believe that wishful neglect will be successful to prevent an unhappy ending to this situation.
Points that easily counter
Points that easily counter Den Beste's analysis: the subsequent decline of of Le Pen, Haider, and to a smaller extent the failure of the CDU in Germany to succeed in an alliance with Stoiber and the Bavarian CSU. After quick successes, the stars of Le Pen and Haider faded rapidly. Consider that the effort to defeat Le Pen should be considered a form of electoral heroism.
I was thinking in terms of a
I was thinking in terms of a Belgian in France or a Dutchman in Germany. (Hitler was Austrian! Napoleon was Corsican!) Someone who is part of the larger cultural sphere, but could say to the smaller countries, "I'm not German! I'm here to clean the bums out!" while really guiding the power blocks that think they can use him. Typical pattern, really.
Gary, you raise a strong point, and one that I've thought about somewhat. What is the current percentage of Turks in Germany? 10%? Something ridiculously high. I don't know that they could win, but they sure could speed the collapse. The Jews might even get a pass considering the hatred that could build against Muslims over the next quarter century.
NDR - I don't think your points really speak to the scenario. Le Pen and Haider are now, when the European economy, while stagnant, has not hit anything near bottom. When the aging population, stagnant growth due to socialist econmic policy and (thanks Gary) the unrest centered around unassimilated Muslim minorities all come together, I think a lot more Europeans would vote for Le Pen, Haider or the like.
I would quite disagree. The
I would quite disagree. The rise of dictators in th mid 20th century cannot be understood solely by the economic conditions that Europeans encountered. Dedication to liberal institutions was very weak. Liberal institutions were easily sacrificed in an ongoing war with socialism, in good times and in bad. The political fates of Le Pen and Haider reveal how Europeans have decided to preserve an open democratic society at all cost rather than to destroy it in order to express disatisfaction with their economic lot. The electorate will unite to defeat reactionary politics. There is, of course, concern for the "Muslim question", but it is being addressed as clerics and politicians are discussing how to shape Islamic practices so that they can co-exist in a civil society. I would also point out that militarism barely motivates European electorates anymore.
What percentage of the vote
What percentage of the vote did Haider and Le Pen receive? As I recall, it was significant, especially in the case of Haider, who formed a government in Austria. And only one of the conditions I mentioned was strictly economic.
In any event, I hope you are right. The scenario we are imagining is low probability. But it would be very bad if it happened. And it is harder to feel optimistic about Europe at the moment.
Wake up, the british empire
Wake up, the british empire will never return.
The american will fail, as all did before.
The reason why EU will prevail is not economy or military (the powers in these figures do change rapidly from decade to decade, with China next and India to come). It is passion for an idea that leaves the fences of blinded nationalism.
This is why many persons are feared the EU-Project and oppose it. They learned their whole live long, that proud and identity are equal to nationalism. Which is untrue.
Eat this:
Being self-confident, being proud of your culture and being a patriot without being a blinded nationalist at the same time.
Take that:
Give highest respect to the self-confidence, the proud and culture and patriotism of the others.
An idea that just started to become reality.
EU is not an empire, nor will be, nor can be by definition.
Despite all problems and risks, EU shows the way how different cultures and nations in this world can come together without giving up their identity.
Just think about it.
Do you know anything like EU-Project happened ever in history ?