Spain Blinks
Last Wednesday, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar was coasting to another victory in the polls. Thursday saw the worst terrorist attack in Spanish history. The Spanish government immediately seized on the idea that the ETA must have perpetrated the attack, the Basque separatist terrorists who have plagued the Spanish for decades. However, several early indicators led many, myself included, to lean toward the proposition that it was the work of Al Qaida or one of its franchises. First, the scale of the attack far beyond any previous ETA efforts. Second, the ETA almost always gives notice of an attack, usually shortly before and there was no notification. Third, the MO was quite in line with previous Al Qaida efforts - elaborate planning that was obviously involved, ten bombs timed to go off nearly simultaneously, and using mass transit as the vehicle and target for the attack. The timing was also peculiar exactly two and a half years after 9/11, and I heard that that is exactly nine hundred eleven days after the attack on the Pentagon and the WTC. (The math adds up. Maybe thats being excessively numerological, but they go in for that kind of thing.
Of course, now we know about the five men arrested, and the van and the tape and the Koran. The letter that was delivered to the Arabic paper in London. It seems clear that Islamic fundamentalists are indeed responsible. Which posed an important question for Spanish voters. And one that I think that they have answered wrong.
Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, the Socialist who will become the new Spanish PM, has already declared that he will withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq. Withdraw support from the war on terror. In short, join the axis of weasels. But what message does this send to the Terrorists? That the Spanish can be intimidated. Once you give in, once you flinch, the terrorists own you. Youre their bitch. Anytime that the Spanish do something that the terrorists dont like, you can expect more bombs, not less. Spanish foreign policy will now center on the avoidance of terrorist attacks, which will mean placation, appeasement and kowtowing.
This is a huge defeat for civilization. While we can argue over what is the proper course and what exact methods and goals are appropriate, there is no question that we are fighting enemies of civilization. And those enemies just took out one of our allies as surely as if they had beaten them in a stand up battle.
When I first heard of the Madrid bombings, I said to Mrs. Buckethead that I hoped that some good might come of this evil, that Europe would realize that it is not just the United States that is fighting this war, but that it is a war that all the civilized nations must fight. I thought that perhaps it would be like Pearl Harbor was for Churchill the moment he realized that the United States would enter the fight. I was wrong to hope that, it seems. The reaction has instead been a perception that had the Spanish not supported the US, they would not have been attacked. While I can see the logic of that view, it completely misses the larger picture.
To the Islamic terrorist, we are not the only Satan. Just the biggest one. Their fight is against the west, civilization, in general. Their fantasy ideology paints the Spanish and even the United States as crusaders, rehashing battles half a millennium in the past. (Battles that they mostly won, for chrissakes.) But Spain collectively decided that short-term safety is more important than fighting against terrorism and the delusional ideology behind it. Theyre going to sit this one out.
I fear that should we have another large-scale attack here in the United States, there might be a similar reaction. But I dont believe that another attack would convince the electorate to give up on the fight. I think if anything, another 9/11 would only strengthen our resolve. I pray that we dont find out.
[wik] My coworker points out that even if the ETA was not involved in the bombing, we will likely see more bombs from them, not that they see that the electorate can be cowed by successful, horrific terrorist attacks.
[alsø wik] Mark Steyn makes many of the same points. But more clever like, damn him.
"THE bombs dropped on Baghdad exploded in Madrid!" declared one "peace" protester in Spain. Or as Australian Federal Police Commissioner Mick Keelty put it, somewhat less vividly: "If this turns out to be Islamic extremists . . . it is more likely to be linked to the position that Spain and other allies took on issues such as Iraq."
By "other allies", he means you yes, you, reading this on the bus to work in Australia. You may not have supported the war, or ever voted for John Howard, but you're now a target. In other words, this is "blowback". This is what you get when you side with the swaggering Texas gunslinger and his neocon Zionist sidekicks.
Good stuff, read the whole thing.
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B,
B,
I diasagree that another big CONUS attack would solidify American resolve to fight terror.
As things are today, anything that goes wrong in the world is the fault of cowboy Bush and his minions of evil. Well, and Jews of course, but that's not exactly new. Another 9-11 here wold only "prove" that Bush policy on terror and terroristic states is a miserable failure, a quagmire, or whatever other adjective du jour Al Franken might care to add. Sheesh B, don't you realize by now that every American killed is well-deserved on our part?
Peace assholes would come out in droves in November, firm in their belief that Kerry will somehow fix everything that is, in their estimation, broken. He's the fucking messiah, Kerry is. And he'd win, too.
NPR this morning had a pointy-headed policy person from Spain explaining how the socialist victory there was not in fact a victory for Osama. It in no way deters Spain from the larger WOT, he continued, because there will continue to be high level coordination of intelligence collection and analysis amongst the EU, and agreement on policy actions as far as... and so on and so forth. When you strip away the talk though, there was nothing left. Spain will not actually DO much of anything, but will talk ALOT about doing stuff to maybe sort of curb terrorists. Or something. He also had limited credibility because I saw umpteen million demonstrators across Spain holding placards that read, "Peace", "No War, No Terror", and variations thereof. Not exactly catching the eye of the tiger there.
The pointy heads can do all the 'splainin' they think they need to do to spin away the Spanish electorate's passivity, but the message to Islamists is clear: Spain is a soft target.
So I agree with your assessment of Spanish efforts in the actual fight in the coming years. But I believe that another attack in the US would have the same effect here as it did in Spain. And the same policy pricks would spin it the same way: "not deterred"; "ongoing partnership"; "continuing efforts"; "commitment to fight terror", but everyone knows who won and who lost.
I actually disagree with both
I actually disagree with both you dudes. Spain chose a new set of leaders democratically. There is no indication that the incoming socialist government is going to give back Iberia to the Muslims-- the point at which I think it's fair to start talking about "defeats to western civilization," to use Buckethead's overheated phrase.
There's also the little issue that the now-erstwhile Spanish PM continued to blame ETA for the attacks, and even stepped up the rhetoric against them, even as the evidence mounted that Islamic fundamentalists were the culprits. Is it possible that part of the reason the Spanish people booted him out was because they weren't having any of his bullshit?
Is Spain going to sit this one out? That remains to be seen. The Spanish populace is divided, and regrettably so. But they are Spanish, and European, not Americans. They have a different set of memories, and a more recent history of rampant bloodshed. I hope-- I HOPE-- that this changing of the guard is only partly due to a desire to duck out of the fight against terrorism (I'm sick of the word "war." Fight is more personal.) At this point it's hard to tell. You can quote all the Spanish protestors you want, just as you can quote all the far-leftist ANSWER-heads you want in the USA, to support the notion that civilization has gone all soft and passive. But the far left-- the protestors-- may not actually be in the drivers' seat. The Spanish election is not the end of Civilization, and it's not even the end of Spanish aid, yet. The incoming PM can talk all he wants-- he's not in power yet. Let's wait and see.
If in fact Spain does withdraw its support, that's a real kick in the pants. They will most certainly have "blinked" at that point. But for now, we just don't know.
And as for another terror attack on the USA, I very much doubt that would propel Kerry to victory. And if it did, it would be the result of a democratic process, not the end of the world. .
I don't take issue with
I don't take issue with whether or not Spain's democratic machinery was working. That is, people who wanted to vote did so, for the candidate of their chouice, anonymously and fairly and all that. But I don't buy at all that last week's attack did not influence people's choices, particularly when it was a pacifistic socialist who won an election that he trailed in significantly just a few days before.
As for Spain continuing to participate in the fight against terrorists, unless they take direct action they're nothing to Islamist "warriors". So all the talk about what they might or might not do is irrelevant to the people who want to kill Spaniards and other infidels in the first place. What the peace pricks can't seem to fathom, Spanish, American, or otherwise, is the unless you K I L L terrorists they will kill you, which means going to where they dwell, finding them, and doing the wetwork. Spain's only going to talk about it from now on and leave the wetwork to SOCOM and English-speaking SAS types.
As for recent Spanish memories of bloodshed and history, all irrelevant to the fight at hand. Just because Spaniards are sick of war and only want peace doesn't mean they shouldn't fight now, nor does it mean that Osama would mirror that sentiment. As for giving Iberia "back" to the Muslims, demographics will address that issue in short order.
The American people would turn out in huge numbers in November following a 9-11 scale attack CONUS and yes, vote according to custom and law. And since Bush is ultimately responsible for all of America's problems (at least according to Hollywood, the New York Times Companies, and every network broadcast journalist), including terrorist attacks on America, then only the noble John Kerry can bring peace in our time. Forgetting of course the terrorist operations that occurred before W took the oath of office. Oh wait, that's right- Bush and Karl Rove invented terrorism too- there was no such thing before W's presidency, when world peace reigned.
It is a defeat for western
It is a defeat for western civilization. Not that we lost the war, but we did lose a battle. Spain's new PM has pledged to withdraw its troops from the fight against terror, and from this point on, the government there will make the appropriate noises, but will not take any action that signifies.
GL is right in pointing out that unless you kill terrorists, they will kill you. And there is no evidence that appeasing them has any prophylactic value. The French had their tanker blown up - despite their vigorous (to say the least) efforts to thwart the United States. The viewpoint of the towelheads with explosive belts is that a good infidel is a dead one - and the only credit they will give to the new socialist government is that they are "useful idiots."
The people of Spain chose a new government in a lawful and democratic manner. That gives it the good democracy seal of approval, does it not? But that doesn't mean they made the right choice either in the long term, or that the electorate's goal of reducing or eliminating terrorist attacks will be at all successful. (Rather the opposite, I predict.) We didn't make the right choice when we elected Nixon, and the Germans certainly didn't back in '33. Democracy is a lot of things, but it ain't everything. The Spanish people blinked, and will likely suffer for it.