perfidy

This article at footballoutsiders.com argues that, statistically speaking, football teams should be going for the two-point conversion after almost every touchdown.

Interesting. The basic finding is that, over the last three years, the number of 2-point conversion attempts has risen, as has the success rate of said conversions. Also, winning teams tend to go for the conversion more often, and are more successful at it. Although the sample size for individual teams is relatively small, the aggregate numbers across the league bear this observation out.

Put another way, the numbers show that the more a team goes for two, the more often they succeed, and this probably correlates to how often they win.

I don't necessarily agree with the conclusion that every team should be going for a two-point conversion on every touchdown, but the numbers do suggest that there is a clear marginal benefit from doing it more often. Furthermore, that one point can be a huge advantage late in games as well as being a strategic monkey-wrench for the opposing team.

Cool!