perfidy

British fishermen had been working the Grand Banks off Newfoundland since the late middle ages. British explorers discovered the coast of North America in the early sixteenth century. The first successful colonies were planted in the seventeenth century. Only in the eighteenth century did those colonies become large, prosperous and self sufficient. Is this the kind of time frame that awaits us in space? Granted, things do move faster in this day than in centuries past. But when the only government on the planet that has the capacity to pursue a bold program of space development has no desire to do so, things seem rather grim. The British government similarly held back colonization of the Americas for over a century. 

There is a growing number of small companies eager to break into the space transportation industry. They have a limited amount of financing from venture capitalists, typically geeky software billionaires. One major aerospace company, Boeing, has an independent venture that is outside the typical close relationship with NASA and the DoD. Sea Launch is a company that has already successfully launched several satellites from its mobile launch pad, using a rocket derived from Russian designs. It promises to lower launch costs by as much as half, by avoiding the waste inherent in many government run launch programs.

But these efforts are nowhere close to actually moving mankind into space. Currently, the amount of money required to develop space technology is completely beyond the reach of any private group. There is no possibility that any latter day Puritans could gather the resources to establish a New Jerusalem on the Moon, or anywhere else in the Solar System. 

Yet, there is hope. Three things may bring about a new golden age to space exploration. First is technology. The incredible advances in computer, manufacturing and materials technology over the forty years since the Space Shuttle first took shape on a draftsman's table may soon make it possible for a well funded independent company to design and build a working rocket. And not merely a rocket like those that have gone before, disposable and wasteful, but a true rocket like those envisioned in the pulp science fiction novels of the fifties - a space ship that can take off, fly into space and return in one piece. Computer aided design, advanced composite materials and automated manufacturing could conceivably bring this within reach, by sharply lowering the cost of development and construction. 

Once the first Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO) space ship flies, the door will open, at least somewhat. The cost per pound to orbit flying on an SSTO would be orders of magnitude less than on a traditional disposable roman candle. The company that builds it would be able to launch from simple space fields, with ground crews more like an airline's than NASA's. They would make a lot of money launching the world's backlog of satellites, and make affordable the launching of satellites for other purposes - those that didn't couldn't justify the vast expense of a current launch. 

Also, a working SSTO is also, by default, the fastest means of point to point travel on earth. No more than forty five minutes to anywhere on the planet. FedEx could certainly find a use for something like that, and likely Virgin Airlines as well. By creating a market for one SSTO, other companies will get in the game, and one would hope that the result would be something like the modern aircraft and airline industry after a little while. 

The second hope is that some other nation will launch an ambitious program of space exploration and colonization, prodding the American Government to get off its collective fundament and begin some exploring and settling of its own. The current world situation is not altogether favorable, what with Europe's economy on permanent hold, and Russia's in a death spiral. The only other potential is China, which is due to launch its first manned mission later this year, and has promised that they will go to the moon by the end of the decade. If the Chinese can pull this off, sheer embarrassment may force the U.S. into action. 

The third hope, and the most unlikely, is that strong leadership from the highest levels of government would create a drive to either go to Mars, or to privatize the space program. The first is extremely unlikely, but the second could happen if it turns out that the space shuttle is not safe to fly again. A decree that promises a large government purchase order to the company that first demonstrates a working SSTO would light a very large and hot fire under the aerospace industry, and thousands of dreamers on shoestring budgets as well. Remember that much of the development of the early aviation industry was motivated by government mail contracts and prize awards. Charles Lindbergh, the dark horse competitor for the Ortieg Prize, won $25,000 for crossing the Atlantic solo, non stop in 1927. But he beat several other competitors who were much better funded. 

People came to the America seeking gold and quick fortunes. In the process of not finding it, they created something as unlikely and wonderful as the United States. If, tomorrow, through some improbable convergence of events we find ourselves in possession of a working SSTO that can deliver cargo to orbit for a thousandth the cost of current launch vehicles; then the whole cornucopia of wonders promised by the space geeks might come true. But the invention of the caravel at the same time that Europe became politically capable of world wide exploration was unlikely, too. If we do go into space, the results will likely be stranger than we can imagine now.