perfidy

In this issue:
The CPI Follows the Money Trail To Nowhere
Stone Cold Thuggin'
Afghanistan's Steps Toward Constitution
Happy Kitten Sunshine Story Time

Read on, below the fold!
The Money Trail To Nowhere

The Center for Public Integrity has released "Windfalls of War," their report on the correlation between cronyism and contracts in Iraq. You know, the Halliburton thing. Daniel Drezner riddles the report with too many holes to fly. Drezner's central rebuttal is that by asserting a statistical correlation between campaign contributions and size of Iraqi reconstruction contracts, the CPI put themselves in the position of arguing from no evidence.

Drezner's argument is pretty persuasive, though some commenters disagree. What is not said, though, is that the CPI chose a piss-poor way of measuring cronyism. All the CPI report's research shows is that campaign contributions played little role in determining who won contracts to rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan.

Drezner himself makes the salient point in a footnote: " the primary thrust of Windfalls of War is that the process is riddled with malfeasance rather than disorganization. The notion that there was a conscious effort to reward Bush cronies with lucrative government contracts would require a lot more centralized coordination than the CPI report uncovers."

As Godwin's law runs, "never chalk up to malice what may be attributed to stupidity." The more likely scenario as regards reconstruction contracts is this: there are maybe ten construction companies in the US large enough to undertake the rebuilding of Iraq, and fewer than that of companies who specialize in oil infrastructure (Halliburton among them). In the evident administrative chaos that surrounded the Administration's run-up to the aftermath, Occam's Razor suggests that Cheney, Condi, etc. said "Hey, I know a guy...." and the calls went out.

If they're serious, the CPI needs to do a much more detailed investigation into whether cronyism played a role here, because by using the numbers they did, they demonstrate a fundamental lack of understanding of the nature of the beast.

Personally, I find it hard to believe that cronyism played no role in getting Halliburton, Bechtel, etc their phat contracts, but CPI sure haven't found any smoking gun yet.

Stone Cold Thuggin'

David Brooks has an op-ed piece in the New York Times today which argues that the "opposition" we're fighting in the Sunni Triangle are the remnants of Saddam Hussein's thug brigades for which the delicious money/power teat has dried up. He doesn't actually use the phrase, "delicious money/power teat"-- that's my innovation-- but that's the gist of it. He argues that making progress in the next few months is crucial, so that by the time Iraqi police, mayors, and so on are ready to take over they just have to mop up instead of fight a well organized crime syndicate.

It would indeed be grand if the Iraqis would hunt the killers. They know the territory. They can get the intelligence sources.

But the administration would be making a mistake if it sent the signal to the American people that the hard work from here on out would be done by the Iraqis themselves. After all, is it realistic to think barely trained policemen can, over the next six months, deliver blows against bands of experienced mass murderers? Is it realistic to think that a local Iraqi mayor will take on the terrorists and so risk his own death, when the most powerful army in the history of the earth is camped just nearby?

Cori Dauber, guest-posting at the Volokh Conspiracy, links to Brooks' piece commenting

It is also important to keep reminding ourselves that for many Iraqis the pain of the old regime is still front and center, which puts comparisons between the situation before and after the war in a slightly different light. How is the situation in Iraq today? Too often when that question is asked we forget to begin the answer with, "well, the torture chambers are closed and there are no new mass graves."

Damn right. And that's the legacy that our agents in Iraq need to be very, very careful not to resemble in any way even by accident. This is part of that "hearts and minds" campaign that we have been posting about in this very venue, and I say again I think it's the most important fight of all in the greater war.

Afghanistan's Steps Toward Constitution

The Afghani draft Constitution was unveiled this week. It features a unitary government led by a President, makes no mention of the Shari'a laws, codifies Islam as the religion of Afghanistan, and makes provisions for the speedy replacement of a deceased President in order to prevent coups.

This is great news. While it's true that you rarely get more than one shot at a Constitution, what I've seen seems encouraging.

That being said, the problems that plague Afghanistan are deep and cultural. Violence is a way of life there. The Atlantic Monthly carried a story last year that underscored how deeply the language, ways, and ethos of violent reprisal suffuse the entire culture, affecting even aimable relations against neighbors. Paraphrasing a bit from the article, I remember one woman in the mountains who told the writer that she was in the market for a rocket launcher because her neighbor up the mountain-- with whom she had no particular quarrel-- had one too.

In a country that has never really known stability in the sense we understand it, fostering goodwill and cooperation for a new Constitutional government will be a huge challenge, especially with the Taliban still mounting attacks.

Happy Kitten Sunshine Story Time

Look at the kitties! Look at them!

And that's it for today. Have a cromulent day.