perfidy

Buckethead, I think you may be mischaracterizing matters somewhat. Many people (who are not all Democrats) are rather cynically expecting the economy to tank once again, which would result in a very welcome Presidential pie-in-face moment. While not devoid of schadenfreude, it's a long way from hoping the economy stays torpid. I'd LOVE the economy to improve, but if it doesn't, I'll find my silver lining somehow. 

Funny thing is, the experts say the economy has recovered. The Wall Street Journal ran an article today (no link...subscription only) on the muddled signals the economy is sending. Some economists point to the slow but definite expansion of production, productivity, consumer spending, and GDP as a sign that the economy has entered a healthy phase. But others point to the continued downturn in the job market (the Journal cites 525,000 nonfarm jobs disappearing in the last three months) as a sign that we're instead in a difficult transitional stage*. Even though productivity is rising, corporations are using the higher productivity rates as an excuse to cut jobs and thereby reduce operating budgets-- not the behavior of corporations in the midst of a growth cycle. As a consequence, regardless of the state of the economy, times remain hard for those workers who either aren't working or who are just getting by. Raises don't happen, wages don't rise, savings don't accumulate, and people don't feel secure.

Am I speaking partially autobiographically? Um... perhaps. I can definitely tell you that in Massachusetts, the worst-hit state in the recent recession, times are still bad for everyone. Although the economy as a whole may still be healthy, budgets at the places my friends work-- libraries, higher ed, museums, nonprofits, entertainment-- are still cut beyond tolerance, and professional jobs are just not appearing in any field except nursing. When they do appear, a scrum develops as two hundred people compete for the same one opening. I could go tomorrow and get a gig at Dunkin Donuts, but I know some seasoned professionals who have been out of steady work for more than a year while still looking, all in an economy which the signs say is recovering. 

What I'm getting at is, even if Iraqi oil surges into the world market in two weeks, that won't have much of an effect on the job market as long as corporations don't feel like they should expand their payrolls. Also, Iraq has just one slice of the world oil-producing capacity, and unlike you I'm not confident it will come anywhere near full capacity soon. 

And the tax cut? While I'm overjoyed to have an extra three damn dollars in my paycheck each pay period, I'd rather see the money go toward the unfunded education mandates the President has handed down. Or the insultingly underfunded AIDS initative he heralded back in January. Or perhaps to train and retain the airport security screeners who are being laid off. This is the SECOND time this President has written checks to Americans, and it's starting to come across like a parent who doesn't know any way besides money to keep the kids quiet. 

*Source: Wall Street Journal, May 29, 2003. A1, A14