perfidy

I've been thinking about the prospects of the mudville nine, and wondering a bit about typical primary politics.

How often does the early frontrunner end up getting the nomination? Dean has taken a solid lead over his opponents - where is the juice coming from? He has raised a solid amount of cash, and his poll numbers are good in New Hampshire. (Compared to Dennis the Menace Kucinich, who is polling at 0%. Zero! Department of Peace, my ass. Sorry.)

I see Dean as benefitting from a sort of McCain effect. He is an outsider, of sorts. He seems plainspoken, a trait that most Americans admire. He talks tough, in a Democratic sort of way. But I think what's happening is that he has become the acceptable candidate for those who can't stand Bush. Large numbers in the Democratic Party want to oppose Bush, often from visceral dislike. It's not so much that Dean has a lot of inherent pull, but that the other candidates are in some way unacceptable as a focus point for their feelings.

• Kerry's credentials are soured because he voted for the war - and his later protestation that Bush lied to him hasn't garnered him a lot of credibility.
• Gephardt is a dry, colorless pol, and only name recognition is keeping him in the game. And, he's a loser in past presidential runs.
• Lieberman is still saying that the war was a good thing. At least he's consistent.
• Edwards is a slick trial lawyer. He does not come across as a man of the people, which you need in this race. And, he's so far behind in the polls that people don't want to back a loser.
• Brown, Kucinich and Sharpton are obvious wackos.

What I've read of Dean shows typical populist democratic nostrums for our ills. I don't agree with them when they come out of his mouth any more than I do when they come out of McCain, Buchanan or William Jennings Bryan.

It is typical for a party to tack to its base during the primaries, and toward the center in the general election. The trick is to go far enough out to lock in your support, but not so far that you become unelectable. Dean hasn't skirted the line yet, but his campaign has yet to face its first crisis. He may have peaked too soon. And despite what Democrats may believe, no one will beat Bush unless they are to the right of him on the war on terror, and there certainly is plenty of room over there.