The True Cost of Iraq
Brad DeLong highlights a Tom Friedman column that advocates immediately moving into the Israeli-Palestinian situation and forcing Israel's withdrawl.
Let's put a few facts down: First, we spend around $200 Billion and 500 soldier's lives so we can capture Saddam Hussein (there doesn't seem to be any other reason for the war, that was given before the war, that's held up).
Second, we spend aroun $4 Billion a year on aid for Israel, mostly in the form of military aid.
Third, the burn rate for cash in Iraq is around $4 Billion a month.
Fourth, building a Palestinian economy from the ground up would probably cost less than $10 Billion, and it might be a lot less than that. And that's presuming we'd see no long term assets or returns.
Fifth, the primary reason that Palestinians object to the fence is that their economy would be destroyed.
Sixth, the single most significant justification given for Islamic hatred of the US is its support of Israel at the expense of the Palestinian people.
If you add all that up, you realize that instead of throwing all that cash away in Iraq blowing shit up so we can have a theocracy there, we could have forced the creation of the wall between Palestine and Israel, made our aid to Israel contingent on acceptance of our designation of the line's path, and then rebuilt the Palestinian economy by investing an amount equal to the Israeli aid directly behind the wall.
Taking a page from Irshad Manji, we could have used micro-loans to jumpstart the businesses, and we could have specified that fully 50% of those loans must be made to women.
What does all this achieve? It puts significant economic power in the hands of women, which directly counters the stupidest and most pathetically mysoginistic parts of what purports to be Islam in the Palestinian territorires. It gives both sides peace and security. It gives the Palestinians something to do, and a way to feed their families. It will also significantly improve America's standing around the globe, and particularly in Islamic countries.
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Giving aid directly to the
Giving aid directly to the Palestinian people is a great idea - anything that money from funneling directly into the hands of Arafat and his terrorist cronies is a good thing. And may have benefits beyond the obvious.
Creating a healthy economy in Palestine could go a long way towards creating a real solution - but, there can be no healthy economy when the nearest thing to a government the Palestinians have is a violent kleptocracy. Until the PLO goes, there is little chance for moderates to emerge, largely because they kill moderates.
We can't expect Israel to back down on its defense expenditures when most of their neighbors still, as oficial policy, want to drive them into the sea. If we could use our position in the ME to force (encourage) Israel's neighbors to at least establish diplomatic relations, that'd be a plus. That would encourage the moderates in Israel.
I don't think there's a lot we can do for the Palestinians until the terrorist leadership goes away - that's why I think that part of the "roadmap" is a good thing. If we're fighting terrorism, we can't be supporting a pseudogovernmnet composed of terrorists. And the Palestinian people won't start doing well in the world until they are no longer pawns of leaders who want to use them as 'splodeydopes.
Manji's point here was that
Manji's point here was that microloans directed equally (or even _mostly_) at women do a lot of neat things. First, the big cash just isn't there for Arafat and cronies to abscond. Second, it alters the stupid anti-women desert tribe crap.
It IS the kind of thing we can do right now. And we should be doing it.
That's why I thought it was a
That's why I thought it was a good idea. And we should be doing it. The microloans idea is a powerful one, because it dilutes power. One of the biggest problems in the third world is that there is almost no mechanism for small scale capital formation. Largely because no one has clear title to anything. Only the government can start businesses, because everyone else falls prey to bribery, corruption and the like.